NSC Counter-Terrorism HQ Reissues Travel Warning for the Sinai Peninsula
(Communicated by the Prime Minister's Media Adviser)

The National Security Council Counter-Terrorism HQ would like to reiterate the following regarding travel to the Sinai peninsula: 1. For some time there have been tangible risks to the security of Israeli tourists who are visiting - or staying in - Egypt, including the Sinai. 2. In recent days, there has been an intensification of the threat that Israelis may be kidnapped in the Sinai.  The NSC Counter-Terrorism HQ strongly recommends that Israeli citizens refrain from visiting the Sinai and that Israelis already there leave forthwith.

Ex-Likud party Chairman Hanegbi: I support Sharon for his personality - not  his policy. Ex-Interim Likud party Chairman Tzahi Hanegbi told a noon conference today that he has decided to leave the Likud and join Sharon's Kadima Party because of Sharon's "personality" rather than his "ideology". Hanegbi explained that his support for Sharon is not based on what Sharon does but instead on how he does it, praising Sharon's determination and back-bone.
 

10 U.S. marines killed in Iraq and casualties are mounting. WASHINGTON, DC- Ten Marines on foot patrol were killed and 11 wounded by a roadside bomb near Fallujah in one of the deadliest attack on American troops in Iraq in recent months, the U.S. Marine Corps disclosed Friday. A brief statement said the marines were from Regimental Combat Team 8, of the 2nd Marine Division. They were hit Thursday by a roadside bomb, which the military calls an improvised explosive device, or IED, made from several large artillery shells, the marines said. IEDs are the most common cause of U.S. casualties in Iraq...Full story.  (On the website of our affiliate: The International News Agency. http://www.internationalnewsagency.org )

U.S. House rejects immediate troop-withdrawal from Iraq after fiery debate. WASHINGTON, DC- The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly rejected calls Friday for an immediate troop-withdrawal from Iraq, a vote engineered by the Republicans that was intended to fail. Democrats derided the vote as a political stunt. "Our troops have become the enemy. We need to change direction in Iraq," said U.S. Representative John Murtha of Pennsylvania...Full story. (On the website of our affiliate: The International News Agency. http://www.internationalnewsagency.org )

Saddam refuses to attend trial. Defense, judges meet over procedural matters. Saddam Hussein's trial was delayed Wednesday after the ousted president refused to attend the session, court officials said. Defense lawyers huddled with the judges in hopes of resolving the latest test of wills in the often-unruly trial. An angry Saddam threatened at the end of Tuesday's session to boycott the next day's proceedings after complaining he and the seven other co-defendants had been mistreated by the "unjust court." Court officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Saddam stuck by his refusal Wednesday and the judges were trying to decide whether to proceed without him...Full story. (On the website of our affiliate: The International News Agency. http://www.internationalnewsagency.org )

Sharon to seek final peace deal with Palestinians if re-elected: minister. JERUSALEM- A deal was emerging Tuesday for elder statesman Shimon Peres to leave the Labor party, his political home for 60 years, and join Ariel Sharon's government if the prime minister is re-elected in March. A Sharon associate and newspaper reports said Peres likely would be charged with developing the outlying Galilee and the Negev regions if Sharon retains power....Read full article. (On the website of our affiliate : The International News Agency. http://www.internationalnewsagency.org )

At least 100  Shiite worshippers killed  near the Iranian border. BAGHDAD, Iraq- Suicide bombers struck in eastern Iraq and the capital on Friday, killing at least 100  Shiite worshippers near the Iranian border and eight Iraqis at a hotel - the second attack against a compound housing Western media and contractors in less than a month. At sunset, hours after the nearly simultaneous bombings of two mosques in the border town of Khanaqin, dozens of people were still searching for relatives and friends. Others collected shredded copies of the Muslim holy book, the Qur'an.. Full story. (On the website of our affiliate: The International News Agency. http://www.internationalnewsagency.org )

Al-Zarqawi threatens Jordan's king, says bombers did not target Amman wedding AMMAN, Jordan- An audiotape in the name of "al-Qaida in Iraq" threatened on Friday to chop off King Abdullah's head and bomb more hotels and tourist sites. The speaker on the tape, identified as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, also said the group's suicide bombers did not intend to bomb a Jordanian wedding party at an Amman hotel last week, killing about 30 people. "Your star is fading. You will not escape your fate, you descendant of traitors. We will be able to reach your head and chop it off," al-Zarqawi said, referring to the king. Al-Zarqawi told Jordanians to stay away from bases used by U.S. forces in Jordan, hotels and tourist sites in Amman, the Dead Sea and the southern resort of Aqaba and embassies of governments participating in the war in Iraq, saying they would be targeted. He underlined that ...Full story. (On the website of our affiliate: The International News Agency. http://www.internationalnewsagency.org )

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Israel's Election Choice

By Dr. Aaron Lerner                  

If all goes well and the survival instincts of the post-Sharon Likud bring  them to the realization that their only possible chance to beat Sharon is by "product differentiation" then the Israeli electorate may very well have a genuine opportunity to set the Jewish State's path at the ballot box. Labor, Sharon and Likud can offer the public distinctly different paths, each with its own distinct logic. The Labor Party, headed by Amir Peretz, is genuinely convinced that withdrawal to the '67 lines will bring peace.  Period.  The heavy investment they plan to make in quick final status talks is not because they think such paperwork is really needed for peace but instead in order to come up with wording that will satisfy enough Israelis who don't share their faith to join in supporting the final status withdrawals .  And since, according to this faith, Arab violence will end the moment the last Israeli leaves the West Bank (and possibly the Golan), Palestinian security noncompliance before the actual withdrawal is irrelevant. The Sharon "Kadima" Party, or rather Ariel Sharon (the rest of the ticket is profoundly irrelevant) is genuinely convinced that Israel can unilaterally impose final status arrangements if it unilaterally withdraws to ostensibly final status borders.  The United States and even the European Union will give Sharon carte blanche, the argument goes, as long as he bulldozes enough Jewish communities in the West Bank. The Likud is genuinely convinced that Israel is better off managing the stalemate that insisting on Palestinian compliance before final status talks can be expected to entail.  By the same token, should conditions warrant Israel's engagement in final status talks Israel will enter those talks confident that the Jewish State's interests would be better served if the talks stalemate over final status terms rather than compromise on what it sees as vital Israeli interests and requirements. National Union and NRP also fit into this line of thought but with a more demanding perception of what are vital Israeli interests and requirements.

In many respects, the Labor-Peretz approach, being faith-based, has both the advantage and disadvantage of simplicity.  Accept the premise that withdrawal to the '67 lines will bring peace as axiomatic and the rest falls into place.  Reject that article of faith and the logic falls apart. The debate between the Sharon and Likud approaches is considerably more complicated as it requires not only deliberating Israel's vital interests but also assessing the limits Israel faces as it endeavors to pursue these interests under the two scenarios. Both camps can be expected to try to bolster their position by referring to the Gaza experience:  Supporters of the Sharon approach can point to the praise Israel earned for withdrawing while advocates of the Likud approach can point out that the Gaza model was based on 100% withdrawal and that that foreign praise did not translate into support for Israel's stand on security interests. The security fiasco known as "Agreement on Movement and Access" and "Agreed Principles For Rafah Crossing" that Israel was pressured by the Bush team to accept to fill the vacuum created by the retreat from Gaza serves as a stark reminder of just how fleeting the rewards are for retreating. On the other hand, with elections coming up in just a few months, retreat advocates can hope that the security consequences of the Gaza retreat won't play out before the votes are cast. It is hard to predict how the vote will ultimately be split between the three views. But at least this election may offer the opportunity for the  public to consider and choose between them.

PEOPLE, EVENTS AND NEWS: Read the latest news.

ISRAEL AND THE ARAB WORLD By Max de Lafayette

Sharon's Kadima Party To Draw Campaign Funds Otherwise Earmarked For  Likud/Labor

The Spokesperson's Office of the Knesset explained to IMRA today that under Israel's campaign finance rules, each party running in the Knesset elections can borrow campaign funds against the future stream of regular periodic payments that each party that has representatives in the Knesset receives....Read the full article

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership - Israel's Perspective

Israel's Perspective on the Barcelona Process. Silvan Shalom, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs. A decade ago, the Barcelona Declaration stated that members of the process are "convinced that the general objective of turning the Mediterranean basin into an area of dialogue, exchange and cooperation guaranteeing peace, stability and prosperity requires a strengthening of democracy and respect for human rights, sustainable and balanced economic and social development, measures to combat poverty and promotion of greater understanding between cultures, which are all essential aspects of partnership". Peace, stability and prosperity for the Mediterranean basin are the declaration's main goals....Read the full article

Confusion and uncertainty surround resumption of Saddam trial

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Saddam Hussein's trial resumes Monday after a five-week break, with the defense planning to seek a lengthy adjournment in a proceeding threatened by Iraq's ongoing turmoil and tarnished by the assassination of two defense lawyers since the opening session last month. The first prosecution witnesses are expected to testify before the five-judge panel, offering accounts of the deaths of more than 140 Shiite villagers following an assassination attempt against Saddam in the town of Dujail in 1982. If convicted Saddam and his seven co-defendants could be sentenced to death by hanging. However, considerable uncertainty surrounds most details of the trial....Read the full article

Car bombs kill 10 in Iraq; U.S. military says top al-Zarqawi aide killed

BAGHDAD, Iraq- A suicide bomber drove his pickup truck into a crowded gas station in central Iraq on Saturday and detonated it, killing six people, while a car bomb targeting a convoy of foreigners in the capital killed four people, police said. The U.S. military also said it had received information confirming the death of a top aide to the leader of Al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Bilal Mahmud Awad Shebah, also known as Abu Ubaydah, was killed in an Oct. 14 raid in Ramadi, an insurgent stronghold 112 kilometres west of Baghdad, the U.S. command said in a statement. The confirmation came from "a close family member as well as coalition sources....Read the full article

For Democracy's Sake - A Breakaway Sharon Party

By Dr. Aaron Lerner                  

In the coming days Ariel Sharon is expected to decide between running in the Likud primaries to continue as the head of the Likud and their candidate for prime minister or at the helm of a breakaway party. As part of this process he intended to present what are ostensibly his plans for the future. That's "ostensibly" because when he did this before the last elections and  asked for the public's support he then turned around and did virtually the exact opposite. No matter how many times his apologists may claim that when Sharon said he  was willing to make "painful concessions for peace" before the last elections that this phrase also covered the retreat from the Gaza Strip and  Northern Samaria, the fact remains that a key element of that campaign was Sharon's sharp criticism and rejection of Labor Party candidate Mitzna's proposal to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza.

That's "ostensibly" because the positions Mr. Sharon has presented since he revealed his intention to retreat have been in constant flux. This week's Rafah agreement, that empowers the Palestinians to allow a free flow of terrorists through the Rafah Crossing as well as via the Gaza seaport when it opens, is just the latest in a series of Israeli concessions that are so radical that it was inconceivable that any Israeli government - be it Likud, Labor or even Meretz led would have accepted them. The situation has deteriorated to the point that almost any Israeli  concession is conceivable.

Is this really what the Israeli public wants?

If Ariel Sharon opts to run on a separate ticket we will finally know - for  better or worse - if the electorate accepts Sharon's policies (or lack of policies) as the then rival Likud Party will highlight, rather than attempt  to suppress, this issue in the campaign.